5302 CARNABY ST, IRVING, TX, 750386905
$38,835,280
2025 Appraised Value
↓ 6.7% from prior year
PASS. Oxford Park presents a stabilized hold masquerading as value-add, with deteriorating fundamentals and refinance timing risk that outweigh the strong unit-level renovations.
The property's 15.1% vacancy with 8.7 weeks of free rent—coupled to a -1.0% declining submarket and 271 bps cap rate premium to comps—signals structural demand weakness, not cyclical softness. The $38.8M appraisal fell 6.7% YoY; at $177.3K per unit, valuation already reflects repricing, leaving minimal upside capture. Operationally, the 2018–2022 renovation window is complete with limited value-add runway; kitchen/bath finishes are uniform and dated to current-era spec, eliminating selective upgrade opportunities. The $31.0M December 2031 maturity creates a refi window in today's rate environment—estimated 70% LTV at $44.3M sale price suggests equity cushion, but absent DSCR detail or rate/term transparency, refinance stress-testing is incomplete.
The demographic profile (88% renter occupancy, $98.3K median HHI, 48.6% earning $100K+) supports the 20.8% affordability ratio but limits tenant volume; walkability misalignment (58 Walk Score, $1,603.50/month pricing) and suburban car-dependency compound leasing friction. With zero near-term new supply but existing market oversupply already compressing occupancy, Oxford Park requires either aggressive operational repositioning or a multi-year hold through submarket recovery—neither scenario justifies entry at current pricing.
Recommendation: Monitor for strategic seller distress post-2031 refi; do not pursue at-market acquisition.
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Your Lucky Home Awaits!
Discover the perfect blend of style, convenience, and comfort at The Montgomery. Nestled in the heart of Las Colinas, our modern 1, 2, & 3 bedroom apartment homes feature sleek kitchens with stainless steel appliances and granite countertops, spacious living areas, and in-unit washers and dryers for effortless convenience. Whether you're lounging by the sparkling pool, staying active in the fitness center, or enjoying the privacy of controlled-access living, The Montgomery offers a lifestyle designed around you.
Oxford Park positions as a Class B+ property with strong recent capital deployment. The property shows nearly uniform renovation across analyzed units—41 of 46 photos revealed "excellent" or "good" condition with 68% of observations noting upgraded/premium finishes—suggesting a systematic capital plan rather than ad-hoc improvements. Kitchen and bath finishes cluster around 2018–2022 vintage (21 of 22 dated observations), with consistent spec: white shaker/painted cabinets, quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and subway/hexagonal tile backsplashes. The 1995 vintage combined with this refresh window indicates a mid-cycle repositioning rather than new construction comparable pricing.
Minimal value-add runway remains. The consistency of finishes across unit types and the fresh paint prevalence (26 observations) point to a largely completed renovation cycle—no evidence of unmortgaged units or selective upgrade opportunities. Amenities (resort pool, modern fitness center, contemporary clubhouse with technology integration) have been refreshed to appeal to current-era renters, reducing upside from amenity capital. The covered parking and teal accent branding suggest recent marketing repositioning, likely 2022–2024.
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Oxford Park's walkability profile misaligns with rent positioning. The 58 walk score and 44 transit score indicate car-dependent living—typical for suburban Irving—yet $1,603.50/month pricing suggests aspirational urban amenities. Tenant demand will skew toward commuters prioritizing parking and freeway access over walkable retail/dining, limiting the property's appeal to transit-preferring or car-free demographics. This rent-to-location mismatch suggests either overpricing relative to comparable suburban stock or mistargeteting of the user profile.
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Construction Pipeline: Minimal Near-Term Pressure, but Weak Fundamentals Elsewhere
The 0.0% pipeline density around Oxford Park suggests zero direct competitive threat from new supply in the near term. However, the deteriorating vacancy trend in the submarket indicates broader oversupply or demand weakness is already compressing fundamentals—new construction elsewhere in the market may be cannibalizing occupancy before it even delivers to this specific asset. With no near-term supply relief and no identified permits, Oxford Park faces headwinds driven by existing market dynamics rather than imminent pipeline risk, making current positioning and operational execution critical.
No multifamily construction permits found within 3 miles
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Oxford Park is held by absentee ownership (OP Friendly Hills/OP Westwind) with a maturing refinance risk: the $31.0M loan originated in late 2016 on a 180-month term matures December 2031, creating a near-term refi window in a rate environment substantially higher than the likely origination rate. The $141.6K per unit loan-to-value ($31.0M ÷ 219 units ÷ $200.9K appraised value per unit) is moderate but the estimated sale price of $44.3M implies 70.0% LTV, suggesting the borrower has built equity but faces refinance timing risk if rates remain elevated. The quiet title transfer in 2011 (Quit Claim Deed with no stated consideration) followed by a $38.75M resale in 2016 signals either a restructuring event or institutional transition; the current 9.3-year hold with only two transactions indicates stabilized institutional ownership rather than a flip strategy, but the silent DSCR data and absent rate/term detail limit stress-testing at refinance.
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Oxford Park trades at a significant premium to submarket fundamentals, suggesting stabilized pricing rather than value-add positioning. At $202.2K per unit versus the submarket average of $130.7K (+54.6%), the property commands a 4.85% cap rate while the submarket trades at 7.56%—a 271 bps spread that reflects either superior assets or market mispricing. NOI per unit of $9.8K sits above typical Dallas Class B/C benchmarks, but the 45.0% opex ratio is healthy and leaves limited margin for deterioration. The $44.3M estimated sale price exceeds the $38.8M appraised value by $5.5M (14.1%), indicating either recent market appreciation or appraisal lag; the discrepancy warrants underwriting scrutiny on revenue sustainability given the 7.3% vacancy assumption.
Estimated from loan records, rental listings, and appraisal data using industry-standard assumptions.
Based on most recent loan: $31,000,000 (Dec 2016, attom)
Computed from nearby properties within 3 miles of similar vintage
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Oxford Park is a 219-unit, garden-style apartment community built in 1995 with wood-frame construction and brick exterior across three stories totaling 222.4K SF in Irving. The property is rated in excellent quality with good condition and offers in-unit laundry, stainless steel appliances, granite countertops, pool, and fitness center amenities. Parking type is not specified in available data. Located in Las Colinas with a Walk Score of 58, the property has moderate car-dependency typical of suburban Dallas submarkets. Pet policy allows up to two pets with a $400 one-time fee and $20 monthly rent, subject to breed restrictions including pit bull mixes and several large breeds at management discretion.
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Oxford Park is aggressively discounting to move inventory, with 33 vacant units (15.1% availability) on a 219-unit asset. The property is offering 8.7 weeks free rent (roughly $305K in annual concessions at current rates) paired with deferred payment terms, suggesting meaningful leasing pressure. Asking rents track near submarket benchmarks ($1.3K for 1BR, $1.9K for 2BR, $2.4K for 3BR), but the concession burden indicates actual effective rents are 12–15% below advertised. The submarket is declining -1.0% annually, headwinds that Oxford Park is fighting through incentive stacking rather than rate cuts.
Estimated from listed vacancies vs total units
Min/avg/max asking rents from property website
| Unit | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | Status | Listed | Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3BR | 2 | 1,245 | $2,406 | Active | Mar 20 | — | |
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Mar $2,406
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| 3BR | 2 | 1,245 | $2,326 | Active | Mar 20 | — | |
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Mar $2,326
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| 3BR | 2 | 1,245 | $1,995 | Active | Mar 20 | — | |
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Mar $1,995
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| 2BR | 2 | 1,271 | $1,906 | Active | Mar 20 | — | |
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Mar $1,906
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| 2BR | 2 | 1,099 | $1,883 | Active | Mar 20 | — | |
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Mar $1,883
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| 2BR | 2 | 1,104 | $1,608 | Active | Mar 20 | — | |
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Mar $1,608
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| 2BR | 2 | 1,104 | $1,603 | Active | Mar 20 | — | |
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Mar $1,603
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| 2BR | 2 | 1,045 | $1,520 | Active | Mar 20 | — | |
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Mar $1,520
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| 1BR | 1 | 806 | $1,385 | Active | Mar 20 | — | |
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Mar $1,385
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| 1BR | 1 | 857 | $1,349 | Active | Mar 20 | — | |
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Mar $1,349
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| 1BR | 1 | 701 | $1,342 | Active | Mar 20 | — | |
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Mar $1,342
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| 1BR | 1 | 759 | $1,340 | Active | Mar 20 | — | |
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Mar $1,340
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| 1BR | 1 | 806 | $1,299 | Active | Mar 20 | — | |
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Mar $1,299
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| 1BR | 1 | 857 | $1,292 | Active | Mar 20 | — | |
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Mar $1,292
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| 1BR | 1 | 759 | $1,242 | Active | Mar 20 | — | |
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Mar $1,242
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| 1BR | 1 | 651 | $1,160 | Active | Mar 20 | — | |
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Mar $1,160
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| A1R | 1BR | 1 | 651 | — | Inactive | Mar 20 | — |
| A2 | 1BR | 1 | 701 | — | Inactive | Mar 20 | — |
| B1 | 2BR | 2 | 1,045 | — | Inactive | Mar 20 | — |
| B2 | 2BR | 2 | 1,099 | — | Inactive | Mar 20 | — |
| B4 | 2BR | 2 | 1,271 | — | Inactive | Mar 20 | — |
| C2 | 3BR | 2 | 1,245 | — | Inactive | Mar 20 | — |
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Affordability Disconnect in High-Renter Urban Core
The 1-mile radius presents a demand paradox: 88.0% renter occupancy and median HHI of $98.3K support the $1,603.50 monthly rent (20.8% affordability ratio), yet 48.6% of households earn $100K+, signaling this is an affluent renter cluster rather than workforce housing. The sharp drop to 71.0% renter occupancy at 3 miles and 66.5% at 5 miles indicates the property captures a narrow, high-income urban demographic; suburban rings show lower renter concentration and declining incomes ($86.7K at 5 miles), reducing addressable demand beyond the immediate submarket. Income skew toward $100K-plus brackets (48.6% at 1-mile) limits tenant volume but supports rent stability, though the compressed 20.3–21.2% affordability ratios across all radii suggest limited upside pricing power without income growth.
Source: US Census ACS 5-Year Estimates (2023) · 4 tracts (1mi)
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Max 2 pets allowed. One-time fee $400. Monthly pet rent $20. Restrictions: Any hybrid or mixed breed with any of the following: Pit Bull, Staffordshire Terrier, American Bull Dog, German Shepherd, Malamute, Rottweiler, Doberman, Dalmatian, Akita, Chow, Presa Canario. This list is not all inclusive of all breeds and Management has final approval.
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Appraisal Interpretation: Oxford Park
The property experienced a 6.7% year-over-year decline to $38.8M, signaling recent market repricing—likely driven by rate environment or local multifamily softness—rather than a multi-year trend (single appraisal provided precludes trajectory analysis). At $177.3K per unit, the valuation sits below current market comps for stabilized 1995-vintage product in most Sunbelt metros, suggesting either below-market positioning or occupancy/operational headwinds. The 15.5% land-to-total-value ratio ($6.0M) is constrained; absent significant land assemblage or density upside, redevelopment economics are unlikely to drive returns—this is a hold-or-reposition play, not a tear-down candidate.
| Year | Total Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $38,835,280 | -6.7% |
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